Tubong-tubong
Climate change has been threatening rice production elsewhere, jeopardizing our food security. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) reported that for every one degree Celsius rise in temperature, there is a corresponding 10 percent drop in rice yield. Rice is very vulnerable to extreme weather and climate change results in the higher incidence of flood, drought, and rising temperature, which can later on cause pest infestation. It also affects water availability and soil fertility, which are both essential in rice production.
Aside from the abovementioned effects of climate change, a stable weather behavior is very important because farmers need to know the span of the wet and the dry season so they can prepare their activities. That is why in Panay Island, we have the “tubong‐tubong”, which presupposes that the weather behavior during the first 12 days of the year provides the forecast for corresponding months of the year. For example, if the fifth day of the year (January 5) is dry, it means that May – the fifth month of the year ‐ will also be dry.
The fact that farmers used tubong-tubong indicates that there is a high demand for seasonal climate information to guide farming‐related decisions. Although the predictive value of tubong-tubong has not been established by scientific evidence, farmers found it reliable in the past. But because climate change has totally altered the weather, the credibility of tubong-tubong has gone down. And rice production has gone down too.
But the municipal government of Dumangas is happy to report that it has dislodged Pototan as the top rice producer in Iloilo, harvesting 43,496 metric tons of rice in 2008. Pototan, dubbed as the rice granary of the province for topping rice production for decades, only yielded 43,287 metric tons that year.
Dumangas attributes this to its ability to forecast the weather through its Climate Forecasting School (CFS) which is equipped by an agro-meteorological station, a facility that forecasts weather conditions. The first in the Philippines established in 2007 in coordination with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pag-asa), the station’s seasonal climate forecasting helps farmers in field preparation, selection of the proper rice seeds and the kind of cash crops that they can plant for the particular season.
The station collects observation data, and sends to Pag-asa office in Manila for interpretation. These are then sent back to Dumangas for dissemination to farmers, fishpond operators, government units and other stakeholders, translated in simple terms. The forecasts advise the farmers what to expect, possible scenarios and recommend course of action. The CFS also teaches farmers about climate change and its impact on agriculture.
In effect, Dumangas has retooled its farmers on new ways to predict the weather as the “tubong-tubong” has already become ineffective. It has also helped farmers deal with climate change so they would be able to save crops and even increase production. Reports say the town spends an annual budget of P200,000 for the operation and maintenance of the agro-meteorological station and a separate P150,000 per batch of farmer students at CFS.
The Dumangas experience does not only highlight the importance of building resilient communities to weather uncertainties brought about by climate change but also the need to empower local institutions so they can formulate climate responses, to creatively use local resources to be cost effective, to create and sustain an inclusive participatory institutional system for efficiency, and to find champions to mainstream climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
These things are not new and they don’t require new sophisticated tools but simply a rethinking of the problem at hand and taking a proactive approach to climate change risk management. Municipalities have coordinating councils where public-private partnerships can be enhanced. They have development and calamity funds that can be tapped to address challenges to food security. And they have ample powers under the Local Government Code of 1991 to create innovative solutions to cushion environmental shocks.
Replicating the Dumangas experience, especially in other rice producing municipalities, would be a welcome development. Addressing climate change and its impacts should not be left to those who have been endlessly debating over international treaties to reduce greenhouse gases or to those blaming each other for this threatening global phenomenon. Time may be running out for Mother Earth, but the grimmer reality is that the supply of rice is also running out for the Filipino stomach.
Nereo C. Lujan
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