RP in deep danger of sea-level rise, scientists warn
COPENHAGEN, Denmark—The warnings had been given before—that low-lying areas, especially in archipelagos like the Philippines, are at risk of being swamped by rising levels of seawater as a result of global warming. This week, though, as 2,000 scientists gathered for a climate-change conference, the warnings have taken on a more urgent tone, as they focused on the much-faster rate of the melting of polar ice caps.
With much of the region already below sea level, even a small rise would be devastating for the low-lying areas in Asia, including the Philippines, according to a new study presented here by an Australian scientist.
Low-lying areas including Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, India and the Philippines face catastrophic flooding as polar ice caps may melt far faster under the pressure of global warming. New predictions suggest that the higher sea levels could pose a far bigger threat than previously thought with the melting of Greenland, Antartica and the world’s smaller glacier and ice caps.
Australians’ study
Dr. John Church, a scientist with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research based in Australia and an author of the study, said the most plausible scenario will lead to a total sea-level rise of one to two meters by 2100.
“Sea-level rise has the potential to affect millions of people living in low-lying coastal regions, particularly those living on deltas of major rivers and small island-nations,” Church said. “Rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are the major factor behind rising temperatures.”
Speaking at the Scientific Climate Change Congress on Tuesday, Church said most recent satellite and ground observations show the sea level is continuing to rise and would be subject to impacts such as flooding, storm surges and severe wave conditions.
“Unless we undertake urgent and significant mitigation actions, the climate could cross a threshold during the 21st century, committing the world to a sea- level rise of meters,” Church told the BusinessMirror later. “Coastal flooding events that today we expect only once every hundred years will happen several times a year by 2100.”
He particularly noted that most coastal areas in Asia, including the Philippines, might be inundated. A study led by Church also shows that even a modest sea-level rise of 50 centimeters will result in a major increase in the number of coastal-flooding events.
IPCC’s assessment
The last assessment report from the IPCC, which shared with former US Vice President Al Gore the Nobel Prize for their advocacy of warning the world about climate change, projected a sea-level rise of 18 to 59 centimeters from 2007. However, the report also clearly stated that not all factors contributing to sea-level rise could be calculated at that time. The uncertainty was centered on the ice sheets, how they react to the effects of a warmer climate and how they interact with the oceans, explains Eric Rignot, professor of Earth System Science at the University of California Irvine and senior research scientist at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
“If this trend continues, we are really likely to witness sea-level rise one meter or more by year 2100,” Rignot said.
Poorest people will be badly hit
IN the Philippines, a one-meter rise in sea level, for example, is projected to affect 64 out of 81 provinces, according to Greenpeace Southeast Asia. Higher sea level would cover at least 703 of 1,610 towns and inundate almost 700 million square meters of land.
“The Philippines is among the most vulnerable of countries. Aside from recurring typhoons and drought, sea-level rise is a major threat to marine ecosystems and to coastal human populations and their livelihoods,” said Von Hernandez, campaign director of Greenpeace Southeast Asia.
Aside from the Philippines, island-states and populous delta areas in Asia, low-lying areas in Africa, Europe and the Americas would also be at risk from sea-level rise. The world’s poorest people will be badly hit especially, said Rod Bailey, Climate Change Policy advisor for the nongovernment organization Oxfam International.
“This must be a wake-up call for rich countries not doing much enough to prevent these cataclysmic predictions becoming a reality. Poor coastal communities are already struggling to cope with a changing climate,” Bailey lamented.
He urged rich countries to cut their emissions by at least 40 percent by 2020, as well as provide the $50-billion fund needed to help the world’s poorest people adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change.
Attended by over 2,000 scientists and researchers all over the world, the three-day meeting in Copenhagen has been organized to set the agenda for this December’s international climate talks—also here—which will draw up a treaty to replace the current Kyoto Protocol for limiting carbon-dioxide emissions.
Imelda V. Abaño, The Business Mirror
Leave a Reply